Brief report of my MSc thesis: the question is whether Academic motivation is measurable

Is there quality in the quantity? Observation of Mongolian economy in 2012 | Тоо болон чанарын тухай: Монголын эдийн засаг 2012 оны ажиглалт

Though the main message sounded like a cliche at the time, now it seems that the pessimistic prediction is coming truer and truer...

Published in UB Post: 2012.4.30 (Mongolian translation follows)

These days, it is said that Mongolia is the fastest growing economy with a GDP growth of 17.3%. And by, 2013 it is expecting even more real GDP growth of 20,8%. But while the numbers are rising, is there betterment in the livelihood of the people? Is there sustainable development in the future? Economists and experts are afraid if that’s not true. There are sour experiences of Nigeria, Sierra Leon and Equatoreal Guinea.  

As for Holland, in 1959 due to its gas discovery, the country was expecting more and more economy growth. But in 5 years, the GDP started reducing. The main reason there was the appreciation of the Dutch guilder which made the exporting goods more expensive abroad, which was a good amount of GNP. Thus, this one scheme of resource curse was named after Holland as the ‘Dutch disease’ though the modern Netherland is one of richest and highest Human Development Indexed country. 

In Mongolia, statistics show that export does not exceed the import causing trade deficits. The trading goods of the country is not much, meaning that we don’t really have to be concerned about export decline despite the fact that there is none (from 2008 the export’s been steadily rising as well as the import). But what we, the people, the parliament and the government have to ponder is the efficient spending of the windfall of mining. But nowadays, instead of proper spending, the government is ‘throwing money from helicopters’.   

The consequence? Almost no real improvement with /nominally/ higher wage, stipend and pension, whilst the inflation rate absorbs the real amount of goods they can buy. In the end, there are excessive and wasteful amount of government spending, higher inflation and still-not-rich households. 

The National Statistical Organization just released the average price of consumer goods by the 18th of April. The average beef price of the markets is 7000MNT and in some bigger supermarkets in downtown, it’s more than 10000MNT. The minimum wage is 140400MNT, which means by the 1 month of salary, the citizen buy only 17kg of beef. But thankfully, other consumer goods average price has lowered. 

As the country’s income goes up, the government spending rose shockingly 56%, last year. The wages, pension and transactions constitute large amount of the budget. Unfortunately, while the people get richer, the price goes up and lowers the real income. The CPI inflation became 11,1%. Appreciative thing is that the Bank of Mongolia (BOM) announced that in the near future inflation will hold on to 8-9%, in one-digit number.  

Despite the excessive amount of budget spending, the BOM still warns the government about the increasing inflation. They have increased their policy rate by 0.5 which is a good measure against inflation. Maybe, due to the actions taken from the BOM, the average price is falling gradually. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expressed their appreciation to the BOM. Moreover they recommend for the authorities to focus on environmental and educational sectors in order to reach long-term development.  

Mongolia is experiencing a window opportunity /percent of the labor age people highest period/ these years with large amount of labor force. If good used it can be a great opportunity for development. But the unemployment was still over 60 thousand in as the statistic of 2011 shows. We have the opportunity.  

No matter how much amount of natural resource is endowed in a country, it has its limits. Large amount of spending with no real outcome /except ‘temporary’ rich people/, will have severe consequences when the resource runs out. The consequences are: poverty, hunger, indebtedness and lagging sectors. As an economics student myself, I am against giving away cash to every citizen instead of investing in the industrial sectors, rural areas, diversifying the agriculture.  

Anuudari Burenbat 

Student at the School of Economic Studies-NUM 

*****

UB post: 2012 оны 4-р сарын 30 

  

Сүүлийн жилүүдэд Монгол орны эдийн засаг өсөлтөөрөө дэлхийд тэргүүлж байгаа гэж сонсоогүй хүн үгүй биз ээ. 2011 онд 17.3 хувь өссөн  гэх нь их гүрнүүдийн эдийн засгийн уналтын үед анхаарал татахуйц үйл явдал болсон билээ. 2012 оны өсөлтийг урьдчилан тооцсон нь 11.6 хувьтай байна. Энэ үзүүлэлт ч гэсэн дэлхийн эдийн засагт хамгийн өндөр өсөлт болж бичигдсэн байна. 

Гэвч ийн тоон үзүүлэлт өсч байхад чанарын өсөлт байгаа эсэх нь чухал билээ. Хүн амын амьжиргаанд ахиц гарсан уу? Тогтвортой хөгжлийг хангаж байна уу? Эсвэл түр зуурын тансаглал уу? Энэхүү асуудлууд мэргэжилтнүүдийн санааг зовоосоор л байна. Нигер, Сиерра Леон, Экваторын Гвиней зэрэг орнуудын гашуун туршлагыг бид санах хэрэгтэй. 

Баялгаас хараат эдгээр эдийн засгийн байдлыг ерөнхийд нь “Голланд өвчин” гэсэн нэрээр бид мэднэ. Түүхийг нь сөхвөл, 1959 онд Голланд улсад байгалийн хийн асар их нөөц олдож, аль хэдийн хүчээ авсан эдийн засгаа илүү ихээр өснө гэсэн хүлээлттэй байлаа. Гэвч 5 жилийн дотор дотоодын нийт бүтээгдэхүүн буурч эхэлсэн юм. Гол шалтгаан нь Голландын мөнгөн тэмдэгт гилдерийн эрэлт нэмэгдэж, ханш өссөнөөс экспортын салбар нь уналтанд орсон байв. 

Хэдийгээр Голланд улсын нэр энэхүү баялгийн хараалын томъёолол болсон ч орчин үеийн Нидерланд улс өндөр хөгжилтэй, хамгийн өндөр Хүний Хөгжлийн Индекстэй орон болжээ. Эдийн засгийн таатай нөхцөл, тогтвортой хөгжилд чиглэсэн зөв бодлогын хүчээр энэ аюулаа тойрон гарч чадсан байна.  

Манай улсын хувьд гадаад худалдааны тэнцэл алдагдалтай гардаг. Экспотрын бүтээгдэхүүн ханшийн чангарлаас хамаарч буурах хандлага ажиглагдаагүй ч энэ нь гол асуудал биш юм. Гадаадад экспортлох бүтээгдэхүүний нэр төрөл цөөн, уул уурхайд түшиглэсэн байдаг. Мөн Хятад улс руу нийт экспортын 80 гаруй хувь очдог нь томоохон эрсдэл болж байна.  

Бидэнд шийдэх олон асуудал бий. 2010-2011 оны хавтгайрсан халамжийн бодлого үнийг өсгөж, улирлын нөлөөгөөр үнэ нь хэлбэлзэж байдаг мах, махан бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ байдгаасаа бараг  2 дахин өсч байсан нь саяхан. Үр дүнд нь нэрлэсэн хэмжээгээр өсч, бодит худалдан авах чадвар нь буурсан цалин, стипенд, тэтгэвэр л үлдэж, Монгол 3 хүн тутмын нэг нь ядуу амьдарсаар л. 

2010 онд улсын орлого нэмэгдхэд засгийн газрын зардал 56 хувиар өсч байсныг санахад хэт үрэлгэн байжээ. Зөвхөн нийгмийн халамж ихээхэн хэмжээг нь эзэлсэн байна. Хүний хөгжлийн сангаас зарцуулагдсан нийт хөрөнгөөр хэдэн үйлдвэр барих байв?  

Оюутан миний бие 2012 оноос Засгийн газрын халамжийн бодлого тодорхой нийгмийн бүлэгт чиглэсэн нь зөв бөгөөд эрэлтээс үүдэлтэй инфляцийг өсгөхгүй болов уу гэж найдаж байна. Мөн Монгол банкнаас албан ёсоор мэдэгдснээр үнийн өсөлтийг энэ жил 8 хувиар хязгаарлах юм. Оны эхээр Монгол банк бодлогын хүүгээ 0.5-р өсгөсөн нь мөн л инфляцитай тэмцэх нөлөө бүхий арга хэмжээ байсан. Хэрэв энэ үзүүлэлт үнэхээр нэг оронтой тоонд багтаж чадвал иргэдийн үүрэх нэгэн том ачаа сулрах билээ.  

Монгол улсад хүн амын цонх нээгдсэн, уул уурхайн үйлдвэрлэл эрчимтэй хөгжиж байгаа энэ эдийн засгийн чухал эрин үед тогтвортой хөгжлийн ул суурийг тавьж чадвал хөгжингүй орнуудтай эн зэрэгцэн алхах мөч ирнэ гэдэгт би итгэлтэй байна. Гол нь үр ашигтай оюуны болон материалын хөрөнгө оруулалт хийж, үргүй зардлыг багасгаж, эдийн засгийн ухаан, шинжлэх ухаан технологийг өөрийн нөхцөлд зохицуулан нэвтрүүлэх нь чухал.  

Манай оронд сэргээгдэх эрчим хүчний салбарыг хөгжүүлж байгаа нь урт хугацааны хөрөнгө оруулалт болох билээ. Энэ нь экспортын томоохон салбар болох боломжтой ба бусад орнуудыг цахилгаанаар хангах хүчин чадалтай. Бас нэгэн баялаг нөөцтэй салбар болох хөдөө аж ахуйг дэмжиж анхдагч хэрэгцээгээ дотооддоо хангаж чадаж байх нь эрсдлээс сэргийлэх эн тэргүүний асуудал юм.  

Газрын баялаг хэдий ихээр заяасан дуусдаг жамтай. Түр зуурын тансаглалд автаж, үргүй зардлыг ихээр гаргах нь ирээдүй хойчийнхоо амьдралыг бусниулж байгаатай ижил. Эдийн засгийн ухаанд суралцаж буй оюутны хувьд хөдөө аж ахуйн салбарт төрөлжилтийг бий болгож, засгийн газраас уул уурхайн орлогыг цахилгаан станц, хүсний үйлдвэрлэл, дэд бүтцийн салбарт чиглүүлэн зарцуулах нь Монгол орны гэрэлт ирээдүйн баталгаа болно гэж дүгнэж байна. 

Б.Ануударь 

МУИС-Эдийн Засгийн Сургууль 

Theory or practice? A look at Mongolian education in development

Found one of the mini articles published 3 and a half years ago. Feeling nostalgic about the period... :) Typical "rumination" of mine about theory and practice at that time.

Published in UB Post: 2012.3.21

What is theory and what is practice? Aren’t these two negative forces substituting each other effortlessly? Or do they always go together in every place in any time? Essentially, they should be the two sides of one coin, meaning that they should be combined to reach perfection. 

Renaissance scholar, father of modern science, Galileo Galilei pioneered the study of galaxy - Astronomy, along with the telescope, as the main equipment of that science. Bearing the name, “Father of Science”, he indubitably had universal ability and contributed in almost every branch of science. When this illuminating man was leaving the earth, in 1642, a boy, with a dazzling mentality, who was soon named Isaac Newton, was stepping down the stairs of heaven to his parents. Finding about the gravitational force of Earth, with his ‘labor fruit’, he coordinated the idea under the name of ‘The Law of Gravity’. 

Then  century and a half later, in 1936, a prominent economist of brilliant mind and quick intellect, John Maynard Keynes, has saved the world’s largest markets from the Great Depression, by presenting his masterpiece, ‘General theory of Employment, Interest, Money’, and therefore built the basis of the now enriched Macroeconomics. 

These people, as individuals, had almost nothing similar, without mentioning the remarkable intelligence. But as a ‘social’ human-being, they are categorized in the history as the ‘great thinkers’. They contributed immensely to the humankind by unveiling the most vital principles of the universe. In other words, they ‘theoretized’ the scheme with their quick wit as well as their past experience. They were the “Theory makers”. 

But what is this so-called theory? Is it a rule, serving every parts of existence, without a trace of a given condition? or a commandment, directing absent-minded people to some achievement? Neither. Especially when you are talking about the study of Economics. 

As a learner of economics and an amateur of other social sciences, my fellow students and I have faced considerable number of theories. However, as we became aware of the theories, they tend to be set only in certain conditions, meaning that they are true in a given circumstance.  

John Maynard Keynes, the only son of a famous economist John Neville Keynes, designed his “awakening” theory in times of depression. In that time, there was no impetus for the industrialists to reach forward, gain profit and invest for further expansion, since it was impossible due to the lack of income. So he decided that the government can interfere and provide subsidies for them, thus motivating the industry. It, in some measure did violate the ancient rule of ‘laissez faire’, but obviously the government wouldn’t always get in the way of economy. If yes, it would be by no means a capitalism, but socialism. Thus, we can’t apply this theory of him in every, for certain, blooming economy. This would be the given condition. 

As we all know, theories set these “rubbish” conditions for one major reason, that is: to simplify. It’s not because of the scholar’s indolence, of course. It is the result of the infinity of the universe. And that, in turn, is the end result of its limitless events, makes it harder to guess the manners of life.  

Let’s say, we are learning how to get warm (our ancestors from the neolits had long before discovered fire), and successfully we have learned that warmth appears when body is rubbed with the other, followed by catching fire, if powerfully rubbed. But when the flames ignited, there will be no wind blowing. And if there were, there wouldn’t be fire. In this case, the theory is: fire is ignited from warmth, created by rubbing bodies. The condition: there are no external factors such as wind or rain.  

Source: sylviamoessinger.wordpress.com

To apply the theory in the proper place at the right time, we should practice by using the theory in real life, so that we gain the experience that enables us to use them further in real life. As the idiom says ‘Practice makes perfect’, once the theory is obtained, it should be practiced to become more accurate and understandable.  

Let us take an example of management science and name our protagonist the student Michelle. She has just graduated university with straight A and B’s and now working for a company as a first-line manager. To be a good one, she has to know every aspect of the management science and how to apply them.  

In the management science, there are seven viewpoints: ‘Scientific management’, ‘Administrative management’, ‘Behaviorist, humanist management’, ‘Mathematic, statistics management’, the traditional, and the contemporary ones, ‘Systems viewpoint’, ‘Contingency viewpoint’ and ‘Quality viewpoint’. How would she know which viewpoint or theory to apply when she is in a state of not knowing what to do? Yes, the hero is practice.  

To work excellent and get herself noticed, she has to learn constantly, which doesn’t limit its meaning to just studying with paper and pencil, in other words, knowledge comes from not only university nor school. Learning is from the environment plus the person’s aspiration to keep pace with the modern world and its high speed of development.  

After gaining sound experience, she can now use the viewpoints, as mentioned above, from every aspect. When her worker’s tend to be unhappy and unproductive, she can apply the ‘Behaviorist, humanist management’ viewpoint, thus motivating them to work harder. When she thinks that the workers are not working at the maximum efficiency she would consider the principles of ‘Scientific management’ of Friedrich Taylor and the family of Gilbreths.  

Now, let’s consider the current situation of theory and practice in our universities curriculum. Our students, as I know, tend to work as an intern during summer or as a part-time along with studying. It is an excellent experience. But for the rest of the students, that might be not within reach. Moreover, having asked some graduate students about the practical knowledge taught from the university, my fellows and I have concluded that the practicality of our subjects should be enhanced.  

In order to improve our practical knowledge, the textbooks have to be set more realistic with cases and examples, not just bunch of theories. Most of the textbooks from other developed countries, such as the US, are incredibly understandable and the form-follows-function design makes the content easily memorized.  

Then, by assisting the clubs and unions of students, aiming to be great professionals, will build up firm student-to-student bonds. In addition, if they, the clubs, conduct practical seminars and maybe work on small projects due to certain company’s requests, they would grow up to be excellent human resource with academic as well as practical knowledge, one of the key factors for long-term sustainable development. 

Anuudari Burenbat

Student at National University of Mongolia